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ATS: 184-160-8
(56%)
Moneyline: 3-3
(+0.85 UNITS)
Totals: 64-66-6
(48%)
**TOTAL UNITS EARNED =
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NOTE: 1
UNIT = 6% BANKROLL. View our Rating
System for specifics.
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The Cavs travel to Boston to battle with the home savvy Celtics who play simply on a different level at home than away. Can the Cavs overcome the Celtics in game 7?
The Point: The oddsmakers finally have a line wrong for this game 7 matchup. The Celtics have not been a safe bet lately going 3-8 ATS since the playoffs began. Even at home they are 1-2 ATS their last 3 games. The Cavs on the other hand have been paying out at the ticket window a solid at 4-0 ATS their last 4, 9-3 ATS in the playoffs, and 4-2 ATS in road games during the playoffs. Further, the Cavs are a stout 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. Boston. So why would the Celtics be the favorite again here? The first reason is the Game 7 blowout of the Atlanta Hawks, and pyschologically, this is enough for many Celtics fans and casual bettors to take the home team in this situation. Second, The home team in the conference semifinals this year is a devastating 21-2.
The only victories away from home in this round was the Detroit Pistons winning at Orlando in the lone series that required just five games and the Lakers defeating Utah in game 6. Otherwise, teams have been winning big at home only to get trounced on the road. Although both the Cavs and Jazz losses Wednesday were by a reasonable seven points, the overall average margin of victory in the second round has been more than 12 points a game.
The Bottom Line: Despite the lopsided and unusual trends you are seeing so far in the playoffs for the home team, you simply have to love Lebron James and the Cavs coming into game 7 as the heavy underdog. The Celtics made a huge mistake letting the Cavs off the ropes in game 6, which could have easily been taken by the Celtics at several points in the game. They just did not capitalize by missing easy buckets. Some questionable calls and some home cooking were the cause at the end of the game, but I have to wonder the Celtics mindset blowing a solid lead early on to allow the Cavs back into the game in the first place.
The Cavs have been here before and they are a playoff tested team. Lebron James will keep the Cavs in this game himself down the stretch and give his team a shot at winning when it matters the most. Boston may win this game and move on, but don't expect the margin to be more than 4-6 points on top. The Cavs are a dangerous team in the playoffs as we have seen over the years and it can be attributed to the most talented player in the NBA. Lebron James will have his team ready for game 7, count on it!
The line opened at 7.5 and quickly rose to 8.5, by game-time the line will be 8.5 to 9 in most places. Take the 9 points as this is strong value for a game 7 battle. 3 games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Further, 7 out of their last 10 games have been decided by 7 points or less.
