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ATS: 184-160-8
(56%)
Moneyline: 3-3
(+0.85 UNITS)
Totals: 64-66-6
(48%)
**TOTAL UNITS EARNED =
+7.50
NOTE: 1
UNIT = 6% BANKROLL. View our Rating
System for specifics.
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While Chris Paul’s 35 points and 10 assists were a major factor in the Hornets’ 104-92 victory in the opener of New Orleans’ first-round playoff series with Dallas on Saturday, stifling defense allowed Scott’s club to erase a 12-point halftime deficit and win going away.
Game Preview: Byron Scott found himself awake at 5 a.m. last week, wondering if he should make defensive changes to deal with a dynamic Dallas attack that gave the Hornets fits in both teams' regular season finale. While Chris Paul's 35 points and 10 assists were a major factor in the Hornets' 104-92 victory in the opener of New Orleans' first-round playoff series with Dallas on Saturday, stifling defense allowed Scott's club to erase a 12-point halftime deficit and win going away.
The Mavericks shot 25 percent (9-of-36) in the second half, when New Orleans outscored Dallas 64-40. Dallas shot 33 percent for the game while hustling Hornets defenders limited Dallas to only four fast-break points during the last three quarters.
Scott said he trusts his players to provide a similar defensive effort in Game 2 on Tuesday night.
Certainly, both teams will make tactical adjustments during this best-of-seven series, but Scott said he expects the focus of his tinkering to be on offense.
Dallas coach Avery Johnson said the Mavericks need to keep the ball out of Paul's hands and make him run around more on defense. Paul, who prides himself on his defense and led the NBA in steals with 2.7 per game, seemed almost amused by the idea that Dallas would attempt to make him work harder on the defensive end.
Johnson decided not to hold a practice on Monday, when the Mavs, who returned to Dallas after Game 1, traveled back to New Orleans. Johnson said his team can shoot better with more patience, more ball movement and not relying too much on leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki, which sometimes results teammates getting him the ball when he's out of position. Johnson also called on center Erick Dampier to be more aggressive in everything from rebounding to sticking up for teammates during on-court confrontations, such as when Nowitzki was in a nose-to-nose standoff with Hornets forward David West, who tapped Nowitzki on the cheek as they spoke.
While the Mavs acknowledged some anguish over letting a double-digit lead slip away in Game 1, they still can salvage a split of their first two road games by winning Tuesday night. Then the Hornets would be forced to win in Dallas, something they haven't done since January 1998.
Our Point: No reason to buck the trend now right? Six of the eight favorites covered with seven first round chalk winning straight up to open the conference quarter finals over the weekend. The one exception to that straight up record was the Detroit Pistons who fell at home as the No. 2 seed in the East to the No. 7 seed Philadelphia 76ers. After last night, dogs in the playoffs so far are 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS. The Jazz have won and covered twice against the Rockets. Either way, a controversial offensive foul was the difference in the Rockets loss last night.
Anyhow, on to this game. The Hornets have been absolutely dominant at home going 20-6 ATS their last 26 games and 39-18-1 ATS their last 59 games overall. The Mavericks look a bit like they did last year during playoff time, simply not with it. They are relying on Dirk to do everything and they simply can't overcome their insufficiencies at point guard. Kidd only had 11 points in game 1 and most importantly, had no answer for Chris Paul who ran wild in the second half.
Game 1 Difference Maker: The Mavericks shot 25 percent (9-of-36) in the second half blowing a 12 point lead, when New Orleans outscored Dallas 64-40. Dallas shot 33 percent for the game while hustling Hornets defenders limited Dallas to only four fast-break points during the last three quarters.
Will It Happen Again?: Not 2 games in a row against a playoff tested team such as the Mavs. Look for the Mavs to make nice adjustments in this one and if they get a 12 point lead, they will certainly hold onto it. While the Hornets are a hot team at home, don't expect another 35 point - 10 assist showing from Paul in this one. The Mavs know all they need to do to win this game is handle Paul and contain him for the most part. The entire offense flows through Chris Paul's hands and when Paul has trouble, so do the Hornets. The Mavs will make Paul shoot from the outside, and keep him from the paint in game 2 - that will be the defensive focus for the entire game. Look for Jason Terry to get more minutes and matchup one on one with Chris Paul. Jason Kidd simply can't guard Paul for the entire game and keep up with the frantic pace he likes to push.
The Bottom Line: The Mavs have proven to be a very resilient team this season going 19-13 SU after a loss. Further, over the last 3 seasons they are 70-32 SU coming off a loss (69%). They have played the Hornets very well 2007/2008 going 3-3 SU their last 6 games. As stated earlier, the Mavs controlled game 1 until Chris Paul took over in the second half. The Mavs will look back and make adjustments to the point where everything went wrong in the second half. The fact is the Mavs have been struggling recently, especially Howard who has simply looked out of sink the last few games. Stackhouse also had a shaky return as well and did not look himself on defense. Look for better performances from both players in this one.
Look for the Mavs to come out fired up in this game. If they go down, 0-2, it's going to be a very tough climb out of the hole to such a talented Hornets team. They have much motivation in fire with the way the last season ended and they have a revenge card as extra motivation to prove the public wrong about them. This game is going to go down to the wire and Dirk is one of the best players in the league to count on in tight games. In close games where either team is ahead by 5 points or less, Dirk scores 46 points per 48 minutes, ranked 3rd behind none other than Kobe and Lebron. We fully expect the Mavs to be very close at the end of this game and look for Dirk to make a big shot in the final minutes to give the Mavs an edge. Jason Terry will be the X-Factor in this game as he will come off the bench and score 20+ points. In game 1, Terry was silent with only 8 points, 2-5 from 3 point range. This is definitely not the typical Terry we know scoring 17 points per game and a playoff sure shot as we saw last year against the Warriors. Look for him to be the difference in this game off the bench.
